528: Investing Is More Like Poker Than Chess

Most people picture investing as a game of chess. Everything is visible on the board, the rules are clear, and if you’re sharp enough, you can see ten moves ahead. But markets don’t work like that. They shift in real time—rates change, policies flip, black swan events crash the party. That’s why I think investing looks a lot more like poker. In poker, you never know all the cards. You play with incomplete information, and even the best players lose hands. What separates them isn’t luck—it’s process. Over time, making slightly better decisions than everyone else compounds into big wins. That’s the same discipline great investors use. They don’t wait for certainty—it never comes. They weigh probabilities, manage risk, and swing hard when the odds line up. Risk isn’t the enemy. Fold every hand and you’ll bleed out. To win, you’ve got to put chips in the pot—wisely. Wealthy investors do the same. They protect the downside, but when they see an asymmetric bet—small risk, huge upside—they lean in. That’s what early Bitcoin adopters did. That’s what smart money did in real estate after 2008. And just like poker, investing is about knowing when to quit. Ego and sunk costs can trap you in bad hands, but the pros know when to fold and move their chips to a better table. In the end, both games reward patience, discipline, and emotional control. You don’t need to win every hand. You just need to stay in the game long enough for compounding to do its work. The amateurs play for excitement. The pros play for longevity. That’s the mindset you need as an investor and the reason I interviewed a former professional poker player on this week's Wealth Formula Podcast! Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at [email protected].   One of the things that we feel like when we decide to make a bet on a thesis and we're thinking about, well, wait, what, what if it's like this? Or what if it's like this or whatever, is that we, we do have this sense that we get caught in those decisions, right? That we start something and that, uh, it's very hard for us to get out of that position. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast. Coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you that there is a website associated with this podcast called wealth formula.com. Lots of resources there, including the ability to sign up for our accredited investor club. Now, of course, that is a, uh, also known as a investor club and, um, basically you sign up there. And, uh, you get onboarded and you get an opportunity to see private deal flow that you will not see anywhere else. So go check that out. Wealth formula.com. Topic of today's show's a little different. Um, it's, uh, a little bit more, uh, about the cognitive side of. Of, uh, investing. So, you know, most people picture investing as sort of a game of chess, right? Everything is visible on the board. The rules are clear, and if you're sharp enough, you can see 10 moves ahead. But in reality, the markets don't really work like that. They shift in real time. You know, you got rate changes, policy flips, black swan events, all these things can crash to party. Uh, and that's why I think investing actually looks a lot more like poker and poker. You know, you never know all the cards you play with incomplete information. And guess what? Even the best players lose hand, you do lose in investing. That's something you have to understand. Now, over time, making slightly better decisions than everyone else compounds into big wins.