UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Not hard. Not soft. Complex.'

The economic story for 2023 might be summed up by the mixed narrative of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Talk of a “hard” or “soft” landing misses the complexity of the economy. Some parts of the US may get a hard landing, and others no landing. Thus, housing activity was weak (it is sensitive to the relentless rate increases). But consumer demand for leisure travel is so resilient that vacations may have to be considered a consumer staple, not a cyclical purchase.