EA - Notes on Apollo report on biodefense by Linch

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Notes on Apollo report on biodefense, published by Linch on July 23, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense’s Apollo Program for Biodefense (invoking the moon landing project) is an ambitious proposal to radically change the landscape of biosecurity and pandemic defense with a bunch of technical innovations. It was recommended to me some time ago but I only got around to reading it in June. Below are my (mostly unfiltered) notes, including some fast/quick hot takes. The original intended audience was a) myself, and b) teammates (including future teammates) working on researching future megaprojects. But hopefully it can be hopeful to other EAs as well. Key Takeaways I originally planned to read this report with an eye out for inspiration on what EA megaprojects can Rethink Priorities ideate, analyze, and/or inspire people to work on. But reading this got me thinking: Perhaps the Apollo Program for biodefense should be considered a premier EA/longtermist megaproject in its own right? The technologies they recommend run the gamut between a) prevention, b) detection, c) slowing down/stopping spread, and d) resilience/recovery. The focus on detection seems higher than what I naively would guess is normal in pandemic preparedness circles, possibly due to EA influence. I note that many EAs worked on the report. Many of the recommendations might actually be enacted (!!). They were in Biden’s budget proposal this year) If successfully enacted and the gov’t doesn’t massively screw it up, to the degree EAs were responsible for this, it might end up being one of EA’s largest wins in longtermism to date. From the report and the surrounding context, I’ve overall updated positively on the value of policy/politics. The report itself is short and highly readable. If any of the sections in my notes sound interesting, feel free to jump ahead to that section in the report and read it in full! Executive Summary and Introduction (Pgs 1-7) Choice Quotes “Even the most ambitious program (about $10 billion annually) would be a small fraction of the current cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and an investment in our health, economy, and national security.” “The existential threat that the United States faces today from pandemics is one of the most pressing challenges of our time; and ending pandemics is more achievable today than landing on the moon was in 1961.” “The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more American deaths than World War I, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War altogether.8 COVID-19 will likely cost the United States over $16 trillion.9 We spend billions preparing for other threats to American lives, which may or may not occur. Spending on biological risk reduction would be far less than the significant cost of continuing to let future pandemics devastate the United States again” “We must stop fighting the last war. We need new strategies and defenses. Through The Apollo Program for Biodefense, we can make invisible biological enemies visible and take pandemic threats off the table by the end of the decade. ” “Rogue states wishing to challenge American primacy could take advantage of the Nation’s disease-stricken state to test our country’s ability and willingness to maintain global order. “The visibility of our vulnerabilities increases the likelihood of biological attacks in the future,21 as do the continued breakthroughs in biotechnology that lower the technical barriers to producing biological weapons. The likelihood of an accidental release of pathogens from laboratories may also increase as nations build more high containment laboratories and conduct more biomedical research.22” “The Nation has a history of taking on grand technological challenges in times of need, such as the Manhattan ...