EA - Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines? by elifland

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?, published by elifland on September 14, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Crossposted to LessWrong While there have been many previous surveys asking about the chance of existential catastrophe from AI and/or AI timelines, none as far as I'm aware have asked about how the level of AI risk varies based on timelines. But this seems like an extremely important parameter for understanding the nature of AI risk and prioritizing between interventions. Contribute your forecasts below. I'll write up my forecast rationales in an answer and encourage others to do the same. Elicit Prediction (forecast.elicit.org/binary/questions/726u_r_XC) Elicit Prediction (forecast.elicit.org/binary/questions/8HnkL7Ekf) Elicit Prediction (forecast.elicit.org/binary/questions/dlPDzREFM) Elicit Prediction (forecast.elicit.org/binary/questions/EHL2INyQq) Elicit Prediction (forecast.elicit.org/binary/questions/AETDAUmNF) Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.