68: Can the Fed Dodge a Recession in 2023? w/Nick Timiraos

The Federal Reserve is a misunderstood arm of the government. Is it public? Is it private? Does congress have any control over it? Most Americans don’t know. Because of this constant confusion surrounding this shadowy subsection of the government, Americans are struggling to understand what’s going on with interest rates, mortgage rates, bond yields, and more. But there’s one person who knows the Fed better than the rest. Nick Timiraos, reporter at The Wall Street Journal, has been tracking every move the Federal Reserve makes. Whether it has to do with inflation, interest rate hikes, job growth and decline, or anything in between, Nick knows about it. As the foremost expert on the Fed, we took some time to ask him some of the most critical questions on how the Fed’s decisions could affect investors in 2023. With so many variables up in the air, Nick helps pin down precisely what the Fed is thinking, their plans, and whether we’re on the right economic track. You’ll hear how the “overcorrection” of inflation could pose a massive threat to the US economy, the significant risks the Fed faces today, the three “buckets” that the Fed is looking at most, and why we’re targeting a two percent inflation rate in the first place. We also get into when the Fed could stop raising interest rates, how investors should react, and whether or not we’ll see three and four-percent mortgage rates again. In This Episode We Cover How the Fed’s 2022 moves affected the US economy (and whether they’ll pay off in 2023) Massive money printing and why this time was designed not to repeat 2008’s mistakes  The Fed’s “overcorrection” on inflation and how it could send us into a more brutal recession The three “phases” we must get through to see lower mortgage rates  Interest rates, federal funds rates, and when the Fed could halt their rate hikes  Employment, the labor market, and why excessive wage increases could hurt the economy  The 2023 outlook for real estate investors and when we’ll see low interest rates again And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave’s BiggerPockets Profile Dave’s Instagram Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's Instagram Hear Our 2022 Interview with Nick Book Mentioned in the Show Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos Connect with Nick: Nick's Twitter WSJ Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-68 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices