133: Where America’s Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Home Prices in 2024 w/Doug Duncan

Housing affordability has reached lows that most Americans never knew existed. After home prices had an unprecedented multi-year run-up and mortgage rates got hiked, the average home buyer was out of luck. They couldn’t afford a house, and even if they could, the chances of getting one were slim to none when no inventory existed. Many now hold on to a hope that affordability could be around the corner, but this isn’t looking likely, at least not according to the most accurate forecasters in the country.  Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae doesn’t just do the standard housing market forecast models. His team at Fannie Mae has come up with the most accurate predictions of the housing market to date through a combination of judgment, market sentiment, and math. Today, Doug is on the show to give his data-backed take on home prices, mortgage rates, and the affordability crisis.  There is some good news for homeowners and not-so-good news for home buyers, but Doug brings some solid advice for those still struggling to buy a home, plus a forecast of when things could finally turn around. If you want to know whether a recession is still in the cards, what home prices will do, and when affordability will reach equilibrium, tune in! In This Episode We Cover: A 2024 home price forecast that most didn’t think was possible  Housing affordability and why we may not see relief for YEARS to come Recession watch and whether or not we’re in the economic clear  Data modeling and why you CAN’T just rely on the math for your housing market predictions  Advice to first-time home buyers and what you MUST have before you try to buy  And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Grab Fannie Mae’s Forecast Housing Market Affordability Has Crossed a Concerning Threshold in the U.S Connect with Doug: Fannie Mae Doug's LinkedIn Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-133 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices