“Biorisk is smaller in scale than farmed animal welfare” by OGTutzauer🔸

Introduction In this post, I argue that the scale of farmed animal suffering far exceeds the expected mortality risk from engineered pandemics—by a factor of at least 100. I haven’t seen this explicit comparison made elsewhere, yet it strongly affects my personal cause prioritization. However, it's important not to update solely on scale: the tractability and neglectedness of pandemic preparedness may still justify prioritizing it, despite its seemingly smaller scale. I would be excited to see more detailed work in this area—for example, comparing the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost to farming versus pandemics more rigorously than I do here. Scale of biorisk In The Precipice (2020), Toby Ord estimates a 1/30 risk of human extinction from engineered pandemics[1] this century. Spreading this risk over 80 years—from 2020 to 2100—gives an approximate 1/2,360 chance of extinction per year (on average). The average global population in the 21st century [...] ---Outline:(00:05) Introduction(00:50) Scale of biorisk(01:52) Scale of industrial farming(01:57) Number of Animals(02:18) Converting to human-equivalents(03:23) Caveats and Uncertainties(04:11) Why I might be wrong(04:14) Apples to Oranges(04:40) Population Ethics(05:19) Civilizational Collapse and Value Lock-In(05:53) Animal Suffering from PandemicsThe original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 6th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8us736BffZe682nux/biorisk-is-smaller-in-scale-than-farmed-animal-welfare --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.